Bitcoin Could Reach $180,000 in 2025 If Market Indicators Hold
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, predicts Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by 2025 if key cycle top indicators remain stable. In a discussion with podcast host Natalie Brunell, Sigel identified a consistent four-year price action pattern in Bitcoin's history.
Why $180,000 Per Bitcoin Seems Plausible
Sigel explained that Bitcoin typically outperforms most asset classes for three years following each four-year halving cycle, followed by a significant correction in the fourth year. This correction often sees declines of 60% to 80%, occurring about two years after a BTC halving event.
With Bitcoin's last halving in April 2024, he anticipates strong performance in 2024 and 2025, stating, “The down year typically is the second year after the halving.” He noted that previous cycles showed a minimum of 2,000% appreciation from trough to peak; even a conservative estimate of 1,000% could see Bitcoin rise from around $18,000 to $180,000.
He acknowledged Bitcoin's volatility, which may lead to overshooting or undershooting the predicted price, but emphasized that $180,000 remains a feasible target for 2024 provided no significant warning signals emerge.
Key topping signals include:
- Derivatives funding rates: A prolonged annualized cost above 10% for holding bullish positions serves as a red flag.
- Unrealized profits on the blockchain: High unrealized profits could indicate potential selling pressure.
- Anecdotal evidence of retail leverage: Widespread speculation could signal market tops.
If these indicators align at approximately $150,000, caution would be warranted; however, reaching $180,000 without such signals may allow for further growth.
Next BTC Cycle Predictions
Sigel compared Bitcoin’s potential to gold’s market capitalization, suggesting that if Bitcoin matched the investment portion of gold, its value could approach $450,000 per coin in the next cycle.
Looking further ahead, he mentioned VanEck's model predicting Bitcoin could become part of global central bank reserves, potentially leading to a valuation of $3 million per coin by 2050. This projection assumes Bitcoin may function as a settlement currency in global trade, particularly among BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), estimating a 16% compound annual growth rate.
As of now, BTC trades at $107,219.
