Bitcoin Could Reach $200,000 by Mid-2025 With Mild Corrections
In a report published on December 17, analysts at Bitfinex stated that rising institutional adoption of Bitcoin (BTC) and bullish technical indicators may push its price to $200,000 by mid-2025. Price corrections in 2025 are expected to be mild.
Bitcoin Pullbacks To Be Mild In 2025
Bitcoin recently surpassed the $100,000 mark, increasing its market capitalization to over $2 trillion. The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates strong growth potential for BTC heading into 2025.
The report cites several technical indicators, including market value to realized value (MVRV), net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and the bull-bear market cycle indicator, suggesting continued bullish momentum without reaching euphoric peaks.
Bitfinex analysts note that while diminishing returns may impact Bitcoin's growth, a price of $200,000 could still be achievable under favorable conditions. The report states:
Our view is that any corrections in 2025 will remain mild, thanks to institutional inflows. Historically, post-halving years have seen the strongest rallies. Minimum price estimates stand at $145,000 by mid-2025, potentially stretching to $200,000 under favourable conditions.
Institutional inflows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have increased significantly, particularly following Donald Trump's election victory. Recent analysis shows US spot ETFs now hold more BTC than the wallet of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
The report anticipates some price volatility during Q1 2025 but expects these pullbacks to be short-lived. It also notes that corrections after Bitcoin halvings have decreased in size with each cycle:
In previous cycles, once Bitcoin entered price discovery following a halving, corrections before mean reversion to new ATHs were relatively contained. In the 2017 cycle, the maximum correction was 33.2 percent, while the 2020 cycle saw a slightly smaller correction of 27.1 percent.
Strategic Reserve May Extend BTC Gains
Speculation about a potential US strategic Bitcoin reserve could drive prices into the seven-figure range, according to Blockstream CEO Adam Back. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, suggested that such a reserve could elevate Bitcoin’s price to $500,000. Experts believe that if the US establishes a BTC reserve, other countries may follow, leading to significant price increases.
In related news, Japanese Member of Parliament Satoshi Hamada proposed Japan consider creating its own strategic BTC reserve. As of now, BTC trades at $103,953, down 3.7% in the past 24 hours.
