Researchers Predict Bitcoin Could Reach $4.3 Million by 2036
Researchers Murray Rudd and Dennis Porter predict that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach up to $4.3 million by 2036 if institutional buying trends continue. This forecast is based on mathematical modeling of Bitcoin's supply-demand dynamics.
Supply Shock Warning
- The current liquid supply of Bitcoin is 11.2 million coins, with approximately 4 million coins lost forever.
- Only half of BTC’s total supply is actively liquid, making modest institutional purchases impactful.
- Daily average purchases by US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) stand at 285 BTC since launch.
- Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed acquiring one million Bitcoin, equating to about 550 coins daily over five years.
- If 2,000 BTC are removed from circulation daily, prices could rise to $106,000, close to the current price of $104,800.
Rudd and Porter argue traditional supply curves do not apply to Bitcoin due to its inelastic supply, creating bottlenecks as demand rises. They caution that institutions delaying investments risk being priced out.
Three Scenarios For Bitcoin
- In a conservative scenario, with a 20-fold demand increase and 2,000 daily withdrawals, prices may reach $2.2 million by 2036.
- A bullish scenario predicts a 30-fold demand growth, potentially leading to a price of $5 million by early 2031.
- The most extreme scenario anticipates a 40-fold demand increase, with daily withdrawals at 4,000 BTC, possibly driving prices to $4.3 million by 2036.
These findings suggest significant changes in the financial landscape for Bitcoin, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning and timely investment in the digital economy.