Bitcoin Reaches $99,645 Before Encountering Resistance Below $100K
Bitcoin approached the $100,000 price mark recently, reaching a high of $99,645 before facing resistance. Analyst Percival from CryptoQuant noted that round numbers often prompt traders to exit for "relative safety." Since rising from $73,000 to nearly $100,000, Bitcoin has gained approximately 57%, marking one of the top six exit rallies from consolidation zones. However, a consolidation phase may be imminent.
BTC Faces Resistance Below $100K: What Lies Ahead?
Percival highlighted the Choppiness Index, indicating that Bitcoin's rally is losing strength weekly, suggesting potential consolidation for several weeks before another rally. Historical analysis shows that Bitcoin’s first post-consolidation correction in 2020 lasted about three weeks with an 18% drop, potentially leading to a new rally in late December.
Long-Term Holder (LTH) behavior is crucial for understanding current market dynamics. LTHs are currently seeing 350% profits and entering a supply distribution phase, with around 575,000 Bitcoins (valued at approximately $58 billion) re-entering the market. Demand remains robust, supported by inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and purchases from institutional investors like MicroStrategy.
Using the STH Realized Profit and Loss metric, Percival observed that short-term holders account for 30.2% of profits during this period. Additionally, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has surpassed 1.33σ, indicating the average token is nearing the 1.4σ zone, correlating with 40% unrealized profits, historically linked to corrections after significant rallies.
What to Expect Next for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s future trajectory depends on the pace of its consolidation phase and investor behavior. If current patterns hold, Bitcoin could stabilize before another attempt above $100,000. Nonetheless, short-term corrections may occur as LTHs take profits and STHs remain active.
Institutional demand continues to be strong, demonstrated by substantial ETF inflows, suggesting that despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook appears positive.
Currently, BTC trades at $96,353, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3% over the past day, with a market capitalization of $1.9 trillion.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart From TradingView