Bitcoin Approaches $97,000 Amid Bullish Market Ahead of Jobs Report
Markets are bullish ahead of Friday's jobs report, with bitcoin nearing $97,000 and the S&P 500 experiencing its longest rally since August. Despite this, the CoinDesk 20 index has shown little change amid economic concerns from the first-quarter GDP decline.
Key points include:
- Traders anticipate four Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year, more than previously expected.
- Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) exceeded forecasts, limiting the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy.
- A significant policy shift by the Fed could trigger a breakout rally in bitcoin as investors seek alternative stores of value.
- Historically, May has seen average gains of 7.52% for bitcoin and 27.3% for ether.
- Investor confidence is returning to crypto markets following April's recovery amid easing macro fears.
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- May 5: IOTA network upgrade to enhance capacity and support staking rewards.
- May 5: Kaspa mainnet upgrade to improve block production rates.
- May 6: Casper Network launches 2.0 mainnet upgrade for better transactions and smart contracts.
- May 7: Ethereum to activate Pectra hard fork on its mainnet.
- Macro:
- May 2: U.S. employment data release expected.
- May 5: Final U.S. PMI data release.
- Earnings:
- May 6: Cipher Mining ($-0.07)
- May 8: Coinbase Global ($2.08)
- May 8: Hut 8 earnings report.
Market Movements
Technical Analysis
- Ether has found support at $1,750, indicating potential for further upward movement.
- Bitcoin's resistance remains intact; ether may target the $2,100 level if momentum persists.
Derivatives Positioning
- Bitcoin's liquidity delta shows structural fragility, increasing volatility risk.
- Open-interest rotation into low-cap assets indicates rising market sensitivity to catalysts.
ETF Flows
- Spot BTC ETFs: Daily net flow of $422.5 million; cumulative net flows at $39.53 billion.
- Spot ETH ETFs: Daily net flows of $6.5 million; cumulative net flows at $2.51 billion.