Bitcoin aSOPR Consolidates, Indicator Suggests Possible Cycle Top Ahead

Bitcoin's Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has been consolidating between converging trendlines for nearly two years. This indicator, which excludes short-term transactions, shows whether investors are selling at a profit or loss.

If aSOPR is above 1, the average holder is profiting; below 1 suggests losses dominate.
Previous bull cycles (2017, early 2021) peaked when aSOPR hit a high red line, indicating significant profit realization.
Bear market bottoms occurred when aSOPR reached a low green line, with dominant loss-taking and subsequent coin accumulation.

In the current cycle, aSOPR hasn't reached the previous high levels, remaining in consolidation. Whether it will break out above or below its current channel remains uncertain.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $86,300, having decreased by 9% over the past week.