NewsBTC
Jan 2, 2026
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Bitcoin May Be Two Months Into Bear Market, Analysts Suggest

Bitcoin may be in a bear market, as indicated by CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno. Indicators turned bearish in early November with the price dropping below its one-year moving average.

Technical Signals and Market Sentiment

  • A potential bottom is identified near the realized price of $56,000–$60,000, suggesting a 55% drawdown from Bitcoin's all-time high.
  • Market momentum remains low, with Bitcoin starting 2025 near $93,000, peaking at $126,050, and currently trading around $88,920.

Derivatives Market and Expiry Caution

  • Bitcoin is trading between $87,000–$89,000 as $1.85 billion in options approach expiry.
  • Derivative volume dropped by 39% while open interest stayed flat, indicating trader hesitation.
  • Price compression is seen near support levels, with volatility lower than previous selloffs.

Institutional Accumulation and Market Resilience

  • Institutional investors and ETFs are consistently buying, helping to avoid cascading failures seen in past market downturns.
  • This steady demand has led to a more controlled drawdown despite falling prices.

Future Outlook

  • Analysts suggest 2026 could see new highs due to expected US rate cuts and favorable policies.
  • The correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks is under observation; changes could affect crypto's trajectory.

Key Observations for Traders

  • Monitor the one-year moving average, realized price levels ($56,000–$60,000), outcome of options expiries, and institutional purchase trends.
  • Despite calmer price action, downside risk persists. Opinions vary between anticipating growth or further declines before recovery.