Bitcoin Bearish Below $115,000 Says Analyst Josh Olszewicz

Key Points from Josh Olszewicz's Analysis:

  • Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend until it reclaims $115,000. Currently trading at $103,634.
  • Ethereum is also negative but less so, requiring a reclaim of $4,200 for a bullish outlook.
  • Bearish indicators for Bitcoin include a bearish Chikou span, downside moving-average crosses, and head-and-shoulders patterns.
  • Derivatives premia are hitting multi-month lows, indicating a lack of market froth.
  • Macro factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and employment data drought add to volatility concerns.
  • Inflation metrics are mixed; rising Trueflation versus a not-so-dire Fed nowcast.
  • Liquidity issues and dollar strength present additional challenges for Bitcoin.
  • Equities remain strong, but if they reverse, Bitcoin could face further decline.
  • Miners outperformed due to AI developments rather than Bitcoin fundamentals.
  • Market sentiment is cautious with more investors taking profits as cycle matures.

For a shift in market sentiment, Bitcoin needs to break above $115,000, or else the bearish outlook persists.