Bitcoin May Reach True Capitulation at $65,000, Analyst Predicts

On-chain analyst James Check suggests that while bitcoin's (https://holder.io/coins/btc/) bottom may have been reached, a true capitulation event is likely needed for confirmation. Key points include:

A decline to around $65,000 is viewed as the "true market mean" and represents the average cost basis for active investors.
This level could pressure investors into unrealized losses, affecting even long-term holders.
The price aligns with Michael Saylor’s strategy, which has a cost basis of about $67,500.
Check anticipates strong support in the $49,000-$50,000 range, coinciding with ETF launches in 2024 and a market cap of $1 trillion for bitcoin.
A drop to $40,000 appears unlikely unless a global recession occurs.
A period of "chopsolidation" in 2024 is expected, where bitcoin trades between $50K and $70K, establishing a solid support foundation.