Crypto Founder Warns Bitcoin May Collapse in 7 to 11 Years
Justin Bons, founder and CIO of Cyber Capital, has warned that Bitcoin (BTC) may face a collapse within 7 to 11 years due to its declining security model and diminishing block rewards. He cites these factors as leading indicators of a potential crash.
Key Points on Bitcoin's Future
- Bitcoin's security foundations are reportedly broken, making it vulnerable to attacks.
- Block rewards are expected to fall to 0.39 BTC per block in about 11 years, insufficient to support miners.
- Current mining revenue is sharply declining, relying more on subsidy than transaction fees.
- The annual security budget as a percentage of market cap has decreased from over 8% in 2015 to just above 1% in 2025.
- Bons argues that if miners become unprofitable, security could decline, risking censorship and 51% attacks.
- Raising the Bitcoin supply cap could fracture the community and harm its scarcity narrative.
In response to Bons’ claims, some in the crypto community acknowledge concerns about the shrinking security budget but challenge the notion of an inevitable BTC collapse. Suggestions include:
- Adapting transaction fees and scaling solutions for long-term sustainability.
- Utilizing alternative mechanisms like MEV capture or institutional miners to maintain network viability.
- Considering emergency measures such as tail emissions or block size increases.
