Bitcoin Approaching Critical Inflection in Four-Year Cycle, Analyst Predicts
Bitcoin is nearing a crucial point in its four-year cycle, with potential for a significant price increase or having already peaked, according to analyst Bob Loukas. He suggests that Bitcoin may experience a "blowoff" phase soon, characteristic of past cycle peaks.
- Loukas identifies the current period as late in Bitcoin's rising phase, driven by consistent uptrends and institutional demand.
- The absence of a typical terminal mania phase at cycle peaks supports a bullish outlook.
- Bitcoin is around month 34 from its last cycle low, aligning with previous cycles and suggesting a potential surge.
- If a blowoff occurs, it could result in rapid weekly advances, potentially doubling Bitcoin's price to $210,000 by December.
- Risk management is crucial, with the 10-month moving average near $100,000 acting as a warning sign if breached.
- A move above $120,000 would confirm new all-time highs, while dropping below $105,000 after a new high could indicate a trend reversal.
- Loukas also considers a scenario where the cycle extends into early 2026 without a classic blowoff, aiming for $140,000–$160,000.
The base case suggests a significant bull market peak between months 35-37 from the prior cycle low. Current BTC price is $111,740.
