Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Ends Amid ETF Demand and Market Shifts

Bitcoin has deviated from its traditional 4-year cycle, historically driven by halving events that led to bull runs and subsequent corrections. Despite this shift, some believe the bull run is not over.

Key Points

Bitcoin's historic 4-year cycle appears obsolete as of October 6, 2025, when it peaked at $126,270, followed by a 21% price drop.
Indicators such as the Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score, and Puell Multiple are currently quiet, suggesting a mid-cycle consolidation rather than an end.
Institutional demand through Bitcoin ETFs has significantly impacted the cycle, with $64 billion absorbed by entities like BlackRock and Fidelity.
Recent ETF activity includes $186.5 million outflows, but $240 million flowed back within 24 hours, leading to a 2.38% price recovery to $101,997.13.
Market experts suggest that settlement mechanisms now influence Bitcoin pricing more than sentiment.