NewsBTC
Dec 14, 2025
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Bitcoin Cycle Driven by Politics, Liquidity Over Halvings Says Analyst

Key Insights on Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle

  • Markus Thielen from 10x Research suggests Bitcoin's four-year cycle persists but is now driven by political and liquidity factors, not halvings.
  • Bitcoin's peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 align more with election cycles than with halving events.
  • Political uncertainties, such as control of Congress, influence market expectations and price movements.

Liquidity and Institutional Influence

  • The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut did not trigger a broad rally due to cautious institutional investors amid mixed policy signals.
  • Capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed, reducing buying pressure compared to previous years.
  • Arthur Hayes emphasizes that global liquidity, rather than the halving cycle, drives major cryptocurrency movements.
  • Bitcoin fell below $90,000 in low-volume trading, indicating fragile demand.

Implications for Investors

  • The four-year pattern remains a framework for expectations but shouldn't be viewed as a strict rule.
  • Liquidity conditions significantly impact Bitcoin's price dynamics, with cash flow playing a crucial role.
  • Policy changes and economic news are central to understanding Bitcoin's cycles in conjunction with block reward schedules.