Dec 17, 2025
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Bitcoin Death Cross Often Followed by Significant Gains, Data Shows
Bitcoin's recent "death cross" has sparked discussions among investors. A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, often considered a bearish signal.
- Matthew Sigel of VanEck highlighted that historically, Bitcoin's performance post-death cross shows a median return of +30% over six months and +89% over twelve months.
- However, the impact of a death cross varies with market conditions: it may indicate a bottoming phase or a structural bear market.
- Historically, during bottoming phases like in 2011 and 2020, Bitcoin saw significant rebounds (+357% and +812%, respectively).
- In contrast, during structural bear markets (e.g., 2014, 2018, 2022), returns were negative, reflecting ongoing downtrends.
- The current cycle is tagged as a "cycle bottom," showing positive trends similar to past recoveries.
- Future projections, like those for 2024, suggest potential growth influenced by factors such as ETF demand and market liquidity dynamics.
Bitcoin's current price stands at $86,631.
