Bitcoin Risks Further Decline if $108,500 Support Level Breaks

Glassnode's recent analysis highlights potential risks for Bitcoin based on its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model.

  • The model identifies price levels where specific percentages of BTC supply would be at a loss. Current focus is on the 0.85 quantile, approximately $108,600, where around 15% of BTC is in the red.
  • Historically, failing to maintain above this level often leads to deeper corrections. The next critical level is the 0.75 quantile, about $97,500.
  • BTC has also fallen below the average cost basis of short-term holders (STHs) at $113,100. STHs are investors who acquired BTC within the last 155 days and are sensitive to market volatility.
  • The drop below the STH cost basis could indicate a mid-term bearish phase as these holders might capitulate.

Currently, Bitcoin trades near $109,100, struggling to sustain a recovery.