Bitcoin Drops Below $115,000 as PENGU Open Interest Hits Record

Market Overview

  • Bitcoin's price fell from above $116,000 to below $115,000 despite stable Dollar Index and expectations of a Fed rate cut.
  • Analysts remain optimistic about BTC reaching new highs and potential gains in tokens like HYPE, SOL, and ENA.
  • Smaller tokens such as MYX, HASH, PENGU, PUMP, and MNT have gained over 10% this week.
  • The CPI and job data suggest an easing narrative, beneficial for crypto short-term.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Futures open interest for top cryptocurrencies rose by 3%-5% due to anticipated Fed rate cuts.
  • Funding rates remain around 10%, indicating bullish sentiment without market overheating.
  • PENGU open interest reached a record high, with funding rates slightly elevated at 15%.
  • SKY and PYTH show deeply negative funding rates, indicating bearish positions.
  • CME bitcoin futures see increased open interest, while ether open interest has declined, suggesting renewed focus on BTC.
  • On Deribit, options for BTC and ETH show a preference for puts until December, even with expected rate cuts.

Token Talk

  • A Thorchain founder was hacked via a deepfake Zoom call, losing $1.2 million.
  • The hack involved social engineering and phishing, contributing to a total of $2.5 billion lost to hacks in the first half of 2025.
  • Thorchain (RUNE) is trading at $1.28, down 14% over the past month and more than 90% since its March 2024 peak.
  • Thorchain is identified as a tool used in North Korea's crypto laundering operations.