Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Could Drop to $28,000 Amid Bear Case
Speculations regarding the Bitcoin bull market's conclusion have intensified, especially as prices remain below March's all-time high of over $73,000. A crypto analyst has presented a bear case scenario predicting a potential drop to $28,000.
Bitcoin Bear Case Unveiled
In an X (formerly Twitter) post, analyst Bob Loukas introduced an unconventional “bear case.” He bases this on cycle theory, suggesting Bitcoin is in the final four-year phase of a broader 16-year cycle. This phase could conclude either with a price peak followed by a decline or one last significant upward movement before a downturn.
Loukas emphasizes that while cycle trends provide insights into future price movements, no law guarantees continuous price increases. He aims to temper investor expectations about perpetual bullishness, stating a bear cycle is inevitable, though its timing remains uncertain. He identified specific price points in his analysis that could signal a bearish trend, predicting Bitcoin might reach lows around $28,500 by 2026. After volatile fluctuations, he forecasts a rise to $59,500 by 2027.
Loukas indicated that a close below the 10-month Moving Average during a bull market would be concerning. Additionally, a monthly close beneath $58,800 could signify a potential downward trend. He estimates a 10% to 15% chance of this bearish outcome, clarifying it as a possibility rather than certainty. While he sees the current market cycle leaning bullish based on historical data, he remains open to alternative scenarios due to the crypto market's volatility.
Analyst Sees Retail Activity Fueling A BTC Downtrend
While discussing his bear case, Loukas noted a significant decline in interest in cryptocurrencies outside of Bitcoin. He highlighted a lack of new retail investors, which could hinder Bitcoin's ability to attract fresh capital for growth. Loukas suggested that retail investors' disinterest may arise from a shift in sentiment, reducing belief in cryptocurrencies' transformative potential.
