Bitcoin Index Reveals Two Accumulation Phases and Five Distribution Waves
Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase after reaching $124,500 and retracing below $115,000. The market is uncertain, with traders monitoring for the next significant movement. Analysts view this consolidation as a natural pause before potential upward momentum.
- A breakout above the all-time high would confirm the start of a growth phase.
- Onchain signals suggest a broader cycle is building toward expansion, despite short-term caution.
- The Bitcoin Composite Probability indicates an early accumulation phase, often preceding major price breakouts.
Market Structure Analysis
Axel Adler notes that Bitcoin's current cycle features phases of accumulation and distribution:
- Accumulation points occurred in March 2023 ($22,000) and August–September 2023 ($29,000).
- Distribution waves were noted at $34,000 to $44,000, $62,000, $90,000, $109,000, and $118,000.
- Bitcoin's composite probability is currently at 38%, indicating a “repair zone” without confirmed bullish reversal.
This repair zone historically precedes new bullish trends, suggesting opportunities for early accumulation.
Current Price Action
Bitcoin is trading around $109,800, facing continued selling pressure. Key observations include:
- Repeated rejections near the $123,000 resistance level.
- Current support is just above $110,000; failure to hold this could lead to targets near $108,000 or $106,000.
- To reverse bearish momentum, Bitcoin must reclaim $112,000 and decisively move above $115,000.
