Bitcoin’s Reliable Indicator Fails, Halting Expected Parabolic Phase

Chartered Market Technician Tony “The Bull” Severino discusses the significance of the copper-to-gold ratio as a macroeconomic indicator for Bitcoin. This ratio, seen as a "growth versus fear index," has not followed its typical pattern, disrupting the expected post-halving and altcoin cycles.

Key Points

The copper-to-gold ratio indicates economic health, where copper strength suggests growth and risk appetite, while gold signals recession fears and risk aversion.
The current cycle diverged from historical patterns, with copper/gold failing to deliver a higher low, marking the lowest point in 15 years.
Severino argues that Bitcoin's halving is not the main driver of price increases; rather, it coincides with macroeconomic shifts indicated by the copper/gold ratio.
Without the expected risk-on impulse, typical cycle markers are unclear, affecting both Bitcoin and altcoin performances.
The lack of a definitive risk-on signal blurs timing for potential cycle tops and alt seasons.
Current market conditions suggest caution, as the trend remains ambiguous without clear indicators for a shift to bullish risk assets.

At the time of reporting, BTC traded at $104,486.

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