Bitcoin Market Influenced by Global Liquidity, Says Analyst Jamie Coutts
Jamie Coutts, an analyst at Real Vision, suggests that the current bitcoin market is primarily influenced by global liquidity rather than its four-year issuance cycle. In an interview with “Crypto Kid,” he presented a framework based on policy, bank credit, and balance-sheet dynamics.
Key Insights from Coutts
- Global liquidity drives risk assets and should be analyzed through central-bank balance sheets, money supply, and commercial banking elements.
- The recent divergence between rising liquidity and bitcoin’s price is not alarming within the asset's volatility range.
- Coutts anticipates interest-rate cuts by Western central banks, particularly during the September meeting.
- He emphasized that most money creation comes from commercial banks, responsible for 85-90% of new money supply.
- The US government’s fiscal policies will likely lead to increased liquidity over time, despite short-term noise.
- Coutts sees a potential "Goldilocks" scenario where economic growth aligns with increasing liquidity, impacting bitcoin positively.
- China's central bank is raising its balance sheet, which could correlate with improvements in Chinese equities and bitcoin prices.
- Bearish divergences in bitcoin’s momentum are noted as risk signals, warranting caution in investment strategies.
Currently, bitcoin trades at $112,946. The intensity of corporate treasury buying has peaked, affecting demand dynamics in the market.
