Dec 10, 2025
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Bitcoin At Midpoint of Bear Cycle With 4% Year-To-Date Decline
Market expert Axel Adler indicates that Bitcoin is midway through a bear cycle, contradicting expectations of a major bull run this year.
Mild Bear Cycle Observations
- Bitcoin's year-to-date decline is 4% with stability between $89,000 and $94,000.
- Current correction stands at -32%, less severe than past cycles.
- 88% of Bitcoin holdings are in unrealized profit; only 12% at a loss.
- Past bear markets had losses rising to around 60%, marking capitulation points.
Potential Outcomes
- Current 17% of coins in the red is lower than traditional capitulation levels.
- Adler suggests the market resembles a correction within a bullish supercycle.
- If the drawdown remains above -35%, it may indicate a move towards "flat" corrections due to institutional demand.
- A correction beyond -40% could signal a classic bear market with deeper declines up to -70%.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $93,000, showing gains of 5% over 24 hours and nearly 9% over 14 days.