Dec 18, 2025
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Bitcoin Enters Extreme Oversold Zone, Analysts Predict New All-Time High
Bitcoin (BTC) Oversold Phase:
- Bitcoin is in an extreme oversold condition, with momentum indicators suggesting market exhaustion and a potential trend reversal.
- Current drawdown seen as a reset in positioning, not the end of the bull market. Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high based on past recovery patterns.
Insights from Key Analysts:
- Thomas Lee, CIO of Fundstrat Capital, highlights Bitcoin's oversold technical development based on data from Bittel Julien, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor.
- Julien’s analysis shows BTC’s recent price action aligns with historical patterns where RSI falls below 30, indicating extreme oversold conditions.
Potential Path Forward:
- If Bitcoin follows past recovery trends, it may achieve new all-time highs. The four-year cycle thesis plays a critical role in this analysis.
Extended BTC Cycle:
- Julien suggests the current BTC cycle could extend into 2026, diverging from the traditional four-year cycle due to public debt refinancing delays post-COVID.
- The four-year cycle thesis may be broken by changes in the debt term structure and liquidity conditions exceeding GDP growth.
- Price bases take time to form and often involve volatility before upward movement. This analysis supports the view that the bull market remains intact.