Business Cycle Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Peak Delay Until Late 2026
Business cycle analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) discusses the current state of the global economy and its implications for risk assets, including Bitcoin. He identifies a “short and shallow” business cycle beginning in 2023, influenced by a weak Chinese economy and a strengthening dollar.
Tomas utilizes four economic indicators to create the Global Economy Index (GEI), which tracks:
- Inverted trade-weighted dollar index
- Baltic Dry Index
- 10-year Chinese Government bond yields
- Copper/gold ratio
He notes that the GEI has shown underwhelming performance in 2023 and 2024, indicating a potential end of the business cycle by late 2024 or early 2025. Historical data suggests a new cycle could peak around late 2026 or 2027.
Tomas observes the relationship between GEI, equities, and PMIs, stating that while the stock market typically leads PMIs, it lags behind the GEI. The S&P 500 has recently entered negative territory year-over-year, aligning with typical end-of-cycle behavior.
The Implications For Bitcoin
Bitcoin's performance is diverging from historical trends. Tomas remarks that Bitcoin has yet to experience usual end-of-cycle declines, possibly due to increased institutional interest and ETFs. However, he warns that a continuation of this divergence may challenge the validity of the four-year halving cycle theory for Bitcoin.
Tomas cautions that if the GEI fails to sustain its recent gains and declines further, the outlook for risk assets could worsen, particularly with potential tariff impacts. He concludes that if a new cycle indeed starts, it might postpone Bitcoin’s peak until late 2026 or 2027.
At press time, BTC traded at $79,428.
