Bitcoin Shows Signs of Potential Double Top Similar to 2021

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing notable price movements, reaching six-figure levels amid easing tariff tensions, but warning signs reminiscent of the 2021 cycle high are emerging.

In April 2021, BTC peaked at $65,000 with significant institutional activity, followed by a decline to $28,000 within two months.
A subsequent rally led to a new high of $69,000, despite bearish on-chain metrics.
Current signals indicate potential double tops; weekly RSI shows bearish divergence and trading volumes have decreased significantly compared to earlier spikes above $100K.
CME BTC futures volume remains low, averaging below 35,000 contracts, while the initial surge saw volumes exceed 65,000 contracts.
Open interest has also diverged from price action; currently 13% lower than January's peak during the recent price rise.

Market Context

The crypto market has changed since 2021, with increased institutional interest driven by corporate acquisitions and the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs. On-chain metrics may not accurately forecast price movements, and while new record highs are possible, momentum appears to be weakening.

Potential market fluctuations could lead to substantial sell-offs, similar to the aftermath of the last bear market.
Factors such as Michael Saylor’s leveraged BTC position and the developing BTC DeFi sector with $6.3 billion in total value locked may influence price stability.