Bitcoin Price Holds Above Key Averages Amid Potential 51% Q4 Surge
Despite recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, Bitcoin's price declined unexpectedly. Market analyst Crypto Birb suggests a potential surge based on several indicators.
Key Points
- BTC trades at $112,000, consolidating above key moving averages: 50-week SMA of $102,934 and 200-week SMA of $54,756.
- The correlation with the S&P 500 is -0.02, indicating independent movements from equity markets.
- Daily chart supports include the 200-day SMA at $109,267 and a trend line at $113,100.
- Current trading range: $110,000 to $117,800. A significant move is expected if this range breaks.
Market Sentiment and Volatility
- The Fear & Greed Index is neutral at 51, suggesting a balanced market sentiment.
- Volatility is cooling, with a 50-day volatility of 3,080 and ATR of 3,495, indicating position reloading by traders.
- Mining costs at $106,400 with miners remaining moderately profitable.
Potential for a Surge
- Historically, Q4 has seen an average Bitcoin gain of 51.04% over 15 years.
- Increasing liquidity in altcoins complements ongoing flows into Bitcoin, supporting market rotation.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin retraced to $110,439, still within its consolidation range, suggesting a possible new uptrend.