Bitcoin Price Drops Nearly 10% from All-Time High of $124,000

Bitcoin experienced a price decline of nearly 10% after peaking at over $124,000, currently trading around $115,424 with a 2.5% drop in the last 24 hours. This retreat has prompted analysis of long-term holder (LTH) behavior and on-chain activity.

Long-Term Holder Trends Across Market Cycles

CryptoQuant's analysis focuses on LTH realized profit and loss (RPL), a key indicator for assessing market cycles.
The 2017 bull market saw increased LTH profits at Bitcoin's peak, while the 2018-2019 bear market was marked by slowed profit realization and losses.
The 2021 market exhibited gradual profit realization, indicating dispersed selling pressure.
In the 2022-2023 downturn, significant losses were recorded as Bitcoin fell to $15,000-$20,000, characterized by panic selling from LTHs.
Currently, profit-taking remains moderate compared to past peaks, suggesting selling hasn't reached typical cycle top levels.

What the Current Data Suggests for Bitcoin

The current moderate profit realization indicates caution, but not an absolute market top. PelinayPA noted:

Sharp increases in LTH profit realization often signal bull market tops. Current measured selling implies BTC might still be in late bull cycle stages. Accelerated LTH selling could indicate a peak.

This cautious approach suggests potential for further upward movement unless selling pressures increase significantly.
A shift towards heavier profit-taking would serve as a warning signal for traders and institutions.
Long-term holder behaviors are viewed as leading indicators for market trends.

Overall, while Bitcoin's price stabilizes below its record high, monitoring LTH actions will be crucial for determining the next phase of the market cycle.