Bitcoin Price No Longer Primarily Linked to Halving Events

Recent analysis indicates that Bitcoin's price dynamics are shifting away from traditional halving events. Instead, factors like broader adoption, market structure, and institutional activity are emerging as key influences on long-term cycles.

Key Insights

Bitcoin has undergone three major cycles:
- Adoption cycle (2011-2018): Focused on retail participants.
- Adolescence cycle (2018-2022): Characterized by speculative leverage and volatility.
- Maturity cycle (post-2022): Marked by increased institutional involvement and stability.
The influential points were the peaks in 2017 and the bottom in 2022, linked to shifts in adoption rather than halving events.
MVRV Short-Term Holder (STH) metrics show reduced volatility, indicating a growing presence of long-term investors.
Bitcoin exchange inflows have reached their lowest since May 2023, suggesting lower selling pressure as investors opt to hold.

Price Analysis

Bitcoin is currently priced around $111,200, with potential resistance between $120,000 and $126,000. Support levels are identified at $108,000–$110,000. A breakthrough could lead to prices reaching $135,000 or higher, while a retreat to $90,000–$95,000 would test market resilience without negating the overall bullish trend.

Bitcoin exchange inflow across all exchanges | Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin daily chart with momentum indicators as of Aug 27 | Source: TradingView