Bitcoin Price Influenced by Multiple Economic Cycles, Not Just One

Bitcoin's price is influenced by multiple factors, including the halving cycle, macro liquidity, and speculative demand. These elements interact within a complex economic environment.

Bitcoin and Macro Cycles

Crypto analyst Giovanni notes that the FOMO surrounding the halving narrative significantly influenced early BTC cycles, alongside the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) exhibiting a 4-year periodicity.
The interaction of these cycles needs proper quantification rather than oversimplified explanations.
The halving cycle remains significant for miners due to scheduled block reward reductions impacting miner economics.
Understanding requires using mathematical tools to study cycle coupling and phase alignment, leading to a structure where internal and external cycles interact in complex ways.

Probability Model for BTC Price Outcomes

An analyst known as The Smart Ape developed a theoretical probability model to estimate Bitcoin's price movements in 15-minute markets on Polymarket.
The model uses the target price, current BTC price, and remaining time before market closure.
The model's outputs closely match real market probabilities, with discrepancies consistently within a narrow 1-5% range.
This accuracy suggests a bot-dominated market driven by logical rules and algorithms rather than human traders.