Bitcoin Price Expected to Peak Between $160,000 and $290,000 by 2026
As the year concludes, Bitcoin (BTC) is reaching new highs, creating bullish expectations for the remainder of its cycle. Reports from Bitfinex indicate potential peak timings and remaining price increases for BTC.
Bitcoin’s Unique Cycle
Bitfinex's latest Alpha Report emphasizes significant advancements in crypto adoption and mainstream recognition this year, distinguishing this cycle from prior ones.
The introduction and growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have exceeded expectations, attracting new investors to the market.
This cycle is considered "unique" as new investors and increasing confidence led to BTC reaching a new all-time high (ATH) ahead of the Halving event, which historically results in a new high 5-7 months later.
There is also rising interest in incorporating cryptocurrencies into national reserves, with various jurisdictions exploring Strategic Bitcoin Reserves following BTC’s recent performance.
Bitfinex analysts note that these elements have kept BTC's corrections smaller compared to previous cycles:
In the current bull cycle, which began in mid to late 2023, Bitcoin’s corrections have been smaller, especially since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. Institutional and ETF demand has created consistent buying pressure, likely limiting future corrections.
The anticipated crypto-friendly US administration contributed to bullish sentiment, resulting in a 130% year-to-date (YTD) growth in the crypto market, reaching a market capitalization of $3.69 trillion, with nearly a 70% increase this quarter.
What’s Next For Bitcoin This Cycle?
The report highlights Bitcoin's impressive performance, noting a 573% increase from its 2022 low of $15,487. The cryptocurrency has risen 130% YTD, driven by significant industry milestones.
Recently, Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark, nearing $110,000. Bitfinex suggests there are further levels to reach in 2025, as historical trends indicate a peak occurring mid-cycle.
Data indicates BTC may peak around Q3 and Q4 of 2025, approximately 450 days post-halving. Metrics like Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), and the Bull-Bear market indicator show that while still in a bull phase, it is not at euphoric peaks.
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has accurately timed past cycle highs, suggesting possible peaks between mid-2025 and early-2026.
If BTC follows the 2021 cycle pattern, it could see a 40% rise to $339,000 by June or July 2025. However, diminishing returns across cycles suggest a more realistic increase of 15% to 20%, placing the price in the $160,000-$200,000 range. Alternatively, if it mirrors the 2017 cycle, BTC might peak at $229,000 by January 2026.
Currently, BTC trades at $107,729, just 0.3% below its ATH.
