Bitcoin Price Expected to Peak in 200 Days Before Mid-2025 Recession
The current Bitcoin (BTC) rally may extend until mid-2025, potentially peaking before a US recession.
Bitcoin Could Peak In Mid-2025 Before US Recession
A Copper Research report indicates that Bitcoin could continue its bullish momentum until mid-2025. As of November 13, Bitcoin is on day 555 of its market cycle, with a possible price peak within the next 200 days, coinciding with a projected US recession in mid-2025.
Bitcoin’s market cycles average 756 days, starting when annual average growth of its market capitalization turns positive and ending at a price peak. The current cycle began around mid-2023, shortly before BlackRock filed for a BTC exchange-traded fund.
If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may reach its price peak around mid-2025. JPMorgan estimates a 45% chance of a US recession by this time, suggesting BTC's peak might align with an economic downturn.
Realized volatility for BTC currently stands at approximately 50%, indicating it is halfway to previous bull market peaks. Additionally, the filtered relative strength index (RSI) is at 60, below former bull market highs, indicating potential for continued upward momentum.
BTC Could Rise Further, But Caution Is Necessary
The digital asset market has been trending upward since Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election, with total market cap surpassing $3 trillion for the first time since November 2021. This growth is attributed to speculation that the Trump administration may establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, similar to El Salvador’s approach.
Bitcoin's price action has elevated its total market cap beyond that of silver, making it the 8th largest global asset. Observing BTC dominance (BTC.D) will be crucial as it hovers slightly above 60%. A decline in BTC.D could indicate capital rotation into altcoins, benefiting smaller-cap assets.
As of now, BTC trades at $87,767, up 1.1% in the last 24 hours, with a total market cap of $1.738 trillion.
