Bitcoin Price Rises Nearly 10% as Dollar Index Drops to 97.27
Bitcoin's price has increased nearly 10% from recent lows, supported by developments in traditional markets.
- The dollar index fell to 97.27, the lowest since February 2022, following expectations of a Fed rate cut and weak housing and consumer data.
- A weaker dollar generally boosts risk-taking in financial markets.
- Andre Dragosch of Bitwise noted that the low DXY is bullish for global money supply growth and Bitcoin.
BTC and NVDA Correlation
- Nvidia's shares rose 4.33%, reaching a record high of $154.30.
- The 90-day correlation between Nvidia (NVDA) and Bitcoin (BTC) is 0.80, indicating a strong positive relationship.
- Nvidia's rise follows a bullish signal in Nasdaq futures.
Bonds Teasing Recession
- The U.S. two-year note yield dropped to 3.76%, the lowest since May 2, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.27%.
- The widening spread between the two yields indicates a steepening yield curve, often a precursor to recessions.
- Kurt S. Altrichter warned that if the two-year yield continues to drop, it may signal loss of control by the Fed.
Consumer Expectations Signal Impending Recession
- Consumer confidence decreased to 93, with a notable decline among Republican respondents.
- The expectations index fell to 69, below the 80 threshold typically signaling a recession.
Traders Price in Fed Rate Cuts
- Market sentiment, coupled with declining oil prices, has led traders to anticipate an early rate cut by the Fed.
- Interest rate swaps are now pricing in four basis points of easing for the July meeting, up from near zero.
- Projected easing over the remaining meetings this year has increased to 60 basis points from 45 basis points a week ago.