Обновлено 04 November
Bitcoin Price Holds Steady at $68,360 Ahead of US Election
As the US presidential election approaches, Bitcoin's price has stabilized between $68,000 and $69,000, close to its all-time high earlier this year. Despite challenges in surpassing this milestone, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, influenced by expected market volatility in the coming hours.
Bitcoin Price Expected To Swing 8% Post-Election
The options market indicates that Bitcoin could experience price fluctuations of around 8% following the election, significantly higher than the typical 2% on regular trading days. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, noted that “no significant volatility premium is priced in after Nov. 7,” indicating expectations for a quick resolution of election results.
The election features Republican nominee Donald Trump against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, with both candidates receiving mixed responses from the crypto community. Trump's favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies has associated Bitcoin with “Trump trades,” especially amid regulatory crackdowns under President Joe Biden. Betting market fluctuations regarding Trump’s odds have corresponded with Bitcoin price movements, which briefly approached record highs before retreating due to poll indications of a tight race.
The options market shows balanced sentiment, with an even mix of bearish and bullish positions throughout October, suggesting traders are preparing for both upward and downward price movements as the election nears. Data from Deribit indicates a potential trading range of $60,000 to $80,000 for Bitcoin in the weeks post-election, based on peak open interest in options contracts.
Path To $100,000 Remains Viable
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher suggests that a Trump victory could trigger an immediate surge in Bitcoin price, potentially setting a new all-time high this year. Conversely, a win for Harris might lead to a price drop, delaying any new highs until Q1 2025. Regardless of the election outcome, Deutscher maintains confidence that Bitcoin will reach $100,000.
Market expert Patric H. observed that Bitcoin closed above a daily downtrend channel last week, signaling a potential reversal. However, he noted weakness in the weekly candle, leading participants to de-risk ahead of the election. His bullish outlook depends on Bitcoin remaining above $65,000; a dip below this threshold could signal increased price volatility.
From a trading perspective, data reveals that perpetual traders on Binance have retracted limit buy orders below $50,000, indicating a shift in sentiment. Previously, there was significant long interest in the “multi-billion dollar range” between $42,000 and $50,000, but traders now favor higher price levels. The next notable limit buy order is at $63,800, with smaller orders extending down to that level, suggesting limited potential for substantial declines. On the upside, significant resistance is noted at $73,000, where considerable selling interest from Coinbase and Binance exists. Patrick expects a possible rejection in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, which could precede a breakout if those levels are breached successfully.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,360, reflecting a 0.8% increase over the past 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com