Analyst Projects Bitcoin Price Target Between $95,000 and $120,000
The Bitcoin price action has sparked renewed interest among analysts and investors as the cryptocurrency approaches a major event, the US election, later in November.
A CryptoQuant analyst known as CoinLupin provided an analysis on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, focusing on Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a metric used to gauge Bitcoin’s value compared to its on-chain fundamentals.
With macroeconomic factors creating uncertainty in the crypto markets, CoinLupin shared insights on the significance of MVRV for evaluating Bitcoin’s current market position.
MVRV And Historical Cycle Peaks
The MVRV ratio, currently around 2, indicates that Bitcoin’s market value is approximately double its on-chain realized value, reflecting the average price paid by all asset holders. CoinLupin explained that the key lies in observing trend changes within the MVRV ratio over time rather than fixating on this absolute value.
Using the 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV along with the 4-year average—a common reflection of Bitcoin’s cyclical trends—the analyst noted that the MVRV ratio is currently above the long-term average and recently exceeded its 365-day moving average. According to CoinLupin, this suggests that Bitcoin's upward trend remains intact. The potential significance of Bitcoin’s MVRV levels particularly regarding historical cycle peaks was elaborated upon.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin has typically peaked when the MVRV ratio is between 3 and 3.6. While Bitcoin’s current MVRV of 2 does not yet approach this peak range, the upward trend in the MVRV indicates that the market may still have room for growth if historical patterns hold. Should the Realized Value (RV) remain constant, CoinLupin’s analysis projects that Bitcoin would need a price increase of around 43% to 77% to reach an MVRV level between 3 and 3.6, translating to a potential price target range of $95,000 to $120,000, provided market conditions support upward momentum. However, the Realized Value could increase as new buying interest emerges, potentially pushing peak valuations beyond these estimated levels.
Bitcoin Market Performance
After several weeks of building momentum to surge past the $70,000 resistance, Bitcoin has again fallen below this price mark, indicating insufficient momentum to move further upward. Currently, BTC trades at $68,306, recording a slight increase in price by 1%, with a 24-hour high of $69,317.
Despite the slight price dip in recent weeks, Bitcoin's daily trading volume has increased during this period. Data from CoinGecko shows that BTC's 24-hour trading volume has risen from below $30 billion last Monday to above $38 billion today.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView