Bitcoin Price May Have Topped at $109,000 According to MVRV Z-Score

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $109,000 earlier this year. Analysts now debate whether this surge represents the market top. Key indicators suggest the market cycle may have peaked, particularly indicated by the Market Value to Real Value (MVRV) Z-Score.

MVRV Z-Score Indicates Potential Market Top

Recent analysis by Tony Severino highlights concerns about Bitcoin's market position:

  • The MVRV Z-Score has fallen below a long-standing uptrend support line, historically associated with market tops.
  • Past cycles in 2017 and 2021 showed similar breaks before price peaks.
  • Bitcoin’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 70, indicating weakening momentum.
  • The RSI Moving Average is now declining, a signal that typically appears after market tops.
  • Current technical indicators and historical trends suggest Bitcoin's peak at $109,000 may mark the end of the current market cycle, potentially leading to a prolonged bear market.

Bulls Attempt to Reverse Bearish Sentiment

Severino reports that bullish attempts are underway to recover Bitcoin's price:

  • Bitcoin is testing a critical resistance level and showing early signs of recovery.
  • A potential Morning Star candlestick pattern could indicate a bullish reversal if confirmed by a complete pattern closure in April.
  • Previous similar setups in 2022 and mid-2023 marked significant turning points for Bitcoin.