Bitcoin Realized Price Exceeds 200-WMA, Indicating Bull Market Potential
Investors are evaluating Bitcoin as possibly nearing the end of its market cycle in Q4. However, two metrics suggest a potential early-stage bull market:
- The 200-week moving average (200WMA), a long-term price trend indicator, has surpassed $53,000.
- The realized price, representing the average on-chain movement price of all circulating Bitcoin, now exceeds the 200WMA at $54,000.
Historically, during bull markets, the realized price remains above the 200WMA. This pattern was observed in the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, where the realized price rose significantly above the 200WMA before eventually dropping below it, signaling bear markets.
In 2022, the realized price fell below the 200WMA but has recently moved above it. Historically, maintaining this position indicates potential further upward movement as the bull market continues.