Bitcoin Faces Seasonal Decline Risk as September Begins
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing historical challenges as it enters September, a month marked by declines in nine of the last 14 years, averaging a 12% loss. Currently, BTC trades near $110,000, its lowest point in nearly two months, contributing to a total crypto market capitalization decline to $3.74 trillion.
Recent price movements include:
- BTC prices remain flat over the past 24 hours
- Solana (SOL) gained 4%
- XRP increased by 1%
- Cardano (ADA) rose by 1.5%
Market sentiment is fragile due to macro uncertainties and declining volumes. Technical analysis indicates a downward trend, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain the $112,000 level. Analysts warn of potential declines toward the $105,000 support and the psychological $100,000 barrier.
The crypto fear index is nearing 40, indicating rising trader anxiety. Historical data shows significant losses in September for Bitcoin in previous years, including declines of nearly 8% in 2017 and almost 14% in 2019.
This year, spot bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $440 million, contrasting with over $1 billion inflows into Ether ETFs, suggesting capital rotation rather than overall growth. Spot ETFs have absorbed more than 1.3 million BTC, representing nearly 6% of total supply.
Upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to show only 45,000 new jobs, indicating a slowing labor market, which could influence Federal Reserve rate decisions. Current options data reflects strong demand for downside hedges, indicating bearish sentiment among traders.