Bitcoin Remains Stable as Analyst Predicts Q4 Will Determine Cycle’s Fate
In a recent livestream, crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz analyzed the current state of the Bitcoin market, highlighting seasonal weakness typical for August and September. He noted:
- Bitcoin’s price action has quieted down, which aligns with historical trends.
- At day 978 of the cycle, he expressed cautious optimism about potential upside, pending developments in Q4.
- Technical indicators show no signs of a market top yet; Bitcoin has not demonstrated the parabolic advance associated with major tops.
Short-term outlook appears weak:
- After a brief breakout towards $122,000–$123,000, momentum has declined.
- Concerns over reclaiming these levels soon are prevalent, with ETF flows being a significant factor.
- Current futures premiums have dropped, indicating reduced speculative demand.
On-chain risk metrics reflect a decline in risk appetite. Olszewicz remarked on the potential need for catalysts such as:
- Rate cuts
- Changes in Fed independence
- Seasonal strength in Q4
Macroeconomic factors show mixed signals:
- Low inflation data at 1.65% could be impacted by new tariffs.
- Labor market conditions suggest rising unemployment rates and declining job availability in manufacturing.
- Liquidity dynamics are shifting, particularly due to draining of the Fed's reverse repo facility.
Olszewicz concluded that while the market shows signs of weakness, there is currently no evidence that the Bitcoin cycle has peaked. BTC was last priced at $113,041.
