Bitcoin Supply in Profit Nears 90% Threshold Amid Price Surge

Bitcoin's price recently surpassed $94,000, raising speculation of a potential parabolic shift. Key metrics indicate a rising market sentiment:

  • The “supply in profit” metric has rebounded above 85%, nearing the crucial 90% threshold historically linked to euphoric market phases.
  • As this threshold is approached, it may trigger intense profit-taking, as seen in recent corrections where the supply dipped close to 75%.
  • If the supply falls below this level, panic selling could occur, indicating market fragility.
  • Whale wallets (holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) have increased unrealized profits by 38% to $150 billion since early April. Historically, reaching $200 billion often leads to selling pressure from whales.
  • Miners sold over 943 BTC worth approximately $850 million in the last two weeks, reflecting cautious sentiment as Bitcoin approaches the psychological $100,000 mark.

Market Dynamics

Bitcoin's market cap rose by over $130 billion, a 7.5% increase. However, the 30-day Demand Momentum remains negative at -483,860 BTC, indicating waning short-term demand:

  • Current dynamics suggest more BTC is being sold than bought, common in late bull cycles or consolidation phases.
  • A reversal into positive demand territory is needed for sustained growth; otherwise, resistance may occur without strong buying pressure.

Price Outlook

Currently, BTC trades just below the upper Bollinger Bands. A breakout could lead towards $100,000:

  • If BTC fails to maintain above the middle band (20-day SMA), a pullback may follow.
  • The RSI stands around 67, indicating approaching overbought conditions, which could prompt a correction if momentum continues upward.