Bitcoin Unlikely to Experience True Supply Shock, Says Analyst

According to a CryptoQuant analysis by Carmelo Aleman, Bitcoin (BTC) is not facing an imminent supply shock despite declining exchange reserves. Key points include:

BTC has traded between $91,500 and $95,800 since April 21, showing stability in price.
Centralized exchange reserves fell from 2,942,077 BTC on November 11 to 2,490,318 BTC by April 28, a 15.35% decrease.
Bitcoin's Realized Capitalization increased from $669.32 billion to $883.03 billion during the same period.
Aleman suggests that a purchase of approximately 500,000 BTC could raise prices to $130,000-$140,000 but warns this may lead to increased selling by miners.
A true supply shock is unlikely unless there is a significant influx of capital boosting Realized Capitalization substantially.

Technical Indicators

Despite limited supply-driven rally potential, technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for BTC:

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken a downward trendline, indicating possible momentum shift.
Short-term holders are retaining their BTC even at a loss, suggesting increasing investor confidence.
BTC is currently trading at $94,374, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours.