Bitcoin Surges to $69,000 Eight Days Ahead of Election
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter.
Bitcoin Price Update
Bitcoin surged to $69,000 but settled at approximately $68,980 by 2 PM ET, remaining flat over the week but up 1.5% in the last 24 hours.
Market Observations
Matthew Sigel from VanEck highlighted Bitcoin's low volatility similar to pre-2020 election trends, suggesting that a potential downgrade of US sovereign debt by Moody’s could drive Bitcoin prices higher post-election.
Election Polls
Recent polls show VP Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump (51% to 47% per ABC News and 50% to 49% per CBS News). Previous polls indicated Trump had a slight edge, highlighting fluctuating voter sentiments.
ETF Inflows and Market Predictions
Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of approximately $3.4 billion since October 11, potentially influenced by Republican polling gains. Analysts predict Bitcoin may rise ahead of the election, particularly if Trump wins, while a Harris victory might lead to a limited market reaction due to reduced uncertainty.
Technical Analysis and Future Outlook
Ledn CIO John Glover emphasizes Bitcoin's technical levels, stating a break above $73,000 could indicate upward momentum regardless of election outcomes. He anticipates Bitcoin could target $80,000 post-election, with potential fluctuations below $70,000 before aiming for $100,000 in early 2025.