Bitcoin Surges to $70,000 Amid US Presidential Election Speculation
As the US presidential election approaches, Bitcoin has reached $70,000 for the first time in over five months. This rise correlates with former President Donald Trump leading in polls against Vice President Kamala Harris, potentially altering the cryptocurrency landscape based on the election outcome.
$70,000 As Key Level For Bitcoin To Surpass March Record
The increase in Bitcoin's price is supported by a stock market rally, with analysts suggesting investors are anticipating a possible Trump victory. Tony Sycamore from IG Australia Pty noted that Bitcoin must maintain a solid break past $70,000 to instill confidence in exceeding its previous record of $73,798 set in March.
Trump has declared his intention to position the US as the "cryptocurrency capital of the world," while Harris advocates for a regulatory framework for the industry. Options traders are speculating that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 by the end of November, regardless of the election results. Implied volatility around Election Day on November 5 has increased, reflecting market uncertainty, and spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have attracted approximately $3.1 billion in net inflows this month.
Regulatory Concerns Surround Harris's Stance On Crypto
Crypto analyst VirtualBacon labeled the upcoming election as the “Crypto Election.” Prediction markets favor Trump at 60%, though national polls show a tighter race with Harris leading slightly by over 1%. The crypto industry has contributed about $119 million to campaigns this election year, nearly half of all corporate donations. Major players like Coinbase and Ripple are donating across party lines to promote supportive legislation rather than backing a single candidate.
While both Trump and Harris express favorable views on cryptocurrency, their commitments to concrete legislative action remain unclear. Harris’s campaign emphasizes protecting minority investors in digital assets without specifics, raising concerns given her association with critics of the crypto industry. Trump's evolving stance includes launching an NFT project and a DeFi platform, indicating a warming to the sector.
VirtualBacon stresses the importance of economic data released after the election in influencing market sentiment. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November may offer insights into inflation and liquidity, affecting the broader market and cryptocurrency trends.
BTC's Path To $100,000
Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that over the past eleven years, seven have seen significant gains for Bitcoin in November. Historical averages indicate a potential 46% gain, which could lead to a November price of over $100,000 per coin. However, for Bitcoin to confirm a breakout towards its all-time high, it must consolidate above the $70,000 mark in the days leading up to the election.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com