Bitcoin Surges Over 8% Following Trump’s 90-Day Tariff Pause
On Wednesday, Bitcoin rose over 8% to $83,588 after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for more than 75 countries, excluding China. This decision was seen as relieving market pressures, although tariffs on China were increased to 125%, indicating ongoing trade tensions.
Key points include:
- The tariff pause reflects concerns over disruptions in the bond market.
- 10-year Treasury yields remained high despite the pause.
- Market analysts view the surge in risk assets, including Bitcoin, as influenced by changing expectations around future negotiations.
Market Expectations
Joe McCann of Asymmetric noted that the market is currently pricing in tariffs only for China. He suggested that an unpriced deal with China could lead to significant upward movement in the market. He linked current market dynamics to past behaviors during the COVID period and mentioned that a strengthening yuan may signal negotiation readiness from China.
Market Concerns
Jeff Park of Bitwise emphasized the fragile environment, citing risks from a weakened yuan, high 10-year yields, and credit concerns. He indicated that these factors could negatively impact risk assets if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates as expected.
Goldman Sachs revised its recession outlook post-pause, projecting 0.5% GDP growth for Q4/Q4 2025 and maintaining a 45% recession probability while anticipating sector-specific tariffs.
Upcoming CPI Data
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2025 is set to be released, which could impact Bitcoin's next movements. February's CPI showed a YoY increase of 2.8%. Analysts expect March's CPI to drop to about 2.5% YoY, with core CPI around 3.0% to 3.1% YoY.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $81,438.
