Bitcoin Tests Critical Support Zone Ahead of Potential Q4 Rally
Bitcoin is testing a critical support zone, with speculations on whether September's weakness will lead to a turning point. Historical trends indicate that September dips often precede strong rallies in Q4.
Bitcoin Returns To The Bull Market Support Band
Recently, Bitcoin touched the bull market support band, a pivotal level where bulls typically attempt to maintain market structure. Key points include:
- Maintaining strength above this band could preserve bullish sentiment.
- August established a local high; September may form a local low, indicating typical price behavior.
- As of early September, Bitcoin was trading below August levels, reflecting a shift from bullish to cautious market conditions.
- The best-case scenario is for the monthly low to have already been set on September 1st, enabling stabilization around the support band.
Historical Cycles Suggest Q4 Upside If Support Holds
For Bitcoin to remain bullish, it should hold steady at the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) throughout September. Notable aspects include:
- Previous bull cycles saw Bitcoin maintaining this level before significant climbs in Q4.
- If the 20W SMA fails, attention will shift to the 50W SMA, which has historically provided strong support.
As of September 3, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $111,053, up 0.83% in the last 24 hours, with moderate volatility. The 24-hour trading volume is approximately $73.2 billion, and the market capitalization is about $2.22 trillion.
