Bitcoin Traders Anticipate Sub-$100K Prices Before Year-End
The crypto market is facing pressure due to U.S. stagflation concerns, with traders on Polymarket estimating a 55% chance of bitcoin prices dropping below $100K by year-end. Key points include:
- Recent economic data shows weakening manufacturing and services sectors, indicating potential job growth decline.
- Interest-rate traders are anticipating Federal Reserve rate cuts, but the impact on risk assets remains uncertain.
- Options markets reflect bearish sentiment for bitcoin, with short-term puts costing more than calls.
- In contrast, ether benefits from SEC guidance on staking, potentially leading to regulatory approval of spot ether ETFs.
- Japan's SBI bank announced an ETF linked to bitcoin and XRP.
- Altcoins are underperforming; the CoinDesk 80 Index dropped 2.9% over 24 hours.
Market Movements
- BTC: $114,105.72 (-0.55%)
- ETH: $3,626.69 (-1.34%)
- CoinDesk 20 Index: 3,768.88 (-2.33%)
- DXY: 98.73 (unchanged)
- Gold futures: $3,415.60 (-0.56%)
Token Events
- Governance votes for Arbitrum DAO, BendDAO, and 1inch DAO are ongoing.
- Unlocks: Immutable (IMX) 1.3%, Aptos (APT) 1.73%, Avalanche (AVAX) 0.39%, Starknet (STRK) 3.53%, Sei (SEI) 0.96%, Arbitrum (ARB) 1.8% of circulating supply this month.
- Worldcoin (WLD) to be listed on Binance.US.
Derivatives Positioning
- Futures open interest in top coins dropped by 4-10%.
- Funding rates above 5% indicate bullish long bets, posing liquidation risks.
- BTC and ETH options show bearish bias through October expiry.
ETF Flows
- Spot BTC ETFs: Daily net flows -$196.2 million; Cumulative net flows $53.63 billion.
- Spot ETH ETFs: Daily net flows $73.3 million; Cumulative net flows $9.12 billion.
Stay informed on macroeconomic factors, upcoming events, and token developments impacting the crypto landscape.