Bitcoin Trading Near All-Time High as Analysts Urge Caution
Bitcoin (BTC) approaches its all-time high (ATH), currently trading at $71,789, approximately 3% below the March 2024 ATH of $73,737. Analyst Peter Brandt advises caution for bulls, emphasizing the need for technical confirmation of a breakout.
Bitcoin Breakout Yet To Be Confirmed
Despite excitement surrounding a potential new ATH, Brandt insists several conditions must be met for a confirmed breakout. He warns against over-enthusiasm without technical validation, particularly regarding diagonal patterns in trading charts. Brandt states that simply “nicking” a boundary line does not equate to a confirmed breakout.
Brandt identifies a target price of $76,000 for a genuine breakout, requiring Bitcoin’s daily chart to close above this level with an average true range (ATR) confirming the move. The ATR measures market volatility and helps traders set informed targets.
Additionally, Brandt notes that a breakout must be validated by a Sunday midnight UTC close to avoid false breakouts that could mislead bullish investors. On the weekly chart, he indicates that Bitcoin's recent movements have only slightly touched key chart points rather than demonstrating strong breaks. A significant journey lies ahead before establishing a new support level.
Important To Overcome $71,000 - $73,000 Resistance Level
Analyst 0xAmberCT underscores the critical resistance zone between $71,000 and $73,000 but suggests current conditions may differ from the past. Factors contributing to potential upward movement include the high probability of Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination, which could positively impact the crypto market.
Current polling shows Trump with a 66.5% chance of victory, compared to Kamala Harris’ 33.5%. Additionally, recent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and expectations of a “soft landing” are likely to enhance risk-taking behaviors among investors, benefiting assets like BTC in a lower interest rate environment.
This analysis aligns with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s prediction of BTC potentially reaching $80,000 in Q4 2024. However, Cole Garner cautions that BTC might decline before achieving a new ATH due to tightening on-chain liquidity. As of now, BTC trades at $71,789, reflecting a 4% increase in the last 24 hours.
