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Bitcoin Trails Gold and S&P 500, Potential for 2026 Recovery
Recent data from Santiment indicates that Bitcoin is underperforming compared to gold and the S&P 500. Since early November, gold has increased by 9%, the S&P 500 by 1%, while Bitcoin has decreased by about 20%.
Whale Accumulation Signals
- Small wallets have been buying since mid-2025, but large holders remain cautious after selling post-October highs.
- The posture of large holders typically influences market trends, with current caution exerting downward pressure on prices.
On-Chain Data Mixed
- Long-term Bitcoin holdings decreased from 14.8 million coins in July to 14.3 million by December, then stabilized.
- Active Bitcoin addresses rose by 5.51% in the last 24 hours; however, transactions fell nearly 30%.
- This disparity suggests increased market observation without significant trading activity.
Market Voices
- Garrett Jin noted capital reallocations as traders seek market opportunities.
- CyrilXBT indicated potential for a shift where Bitcoin could surge, leading other tokens.
Price Calls And Technical Views
- Javon Marks predicts a potential parabolic move similar to 2016–2017, targeting $125K.
- CoinCodex forecasts a modest rise to $91,500 by January 30, 2026, with sentiment currently bearish and the Fear & Greed Index at 23.
- Short-term focus should be on large wallet activities and transaction volume increases.
Reports suggest stabilization rather than a confirmed trend reversal, leaving open the possibility of a recovery in 2026 if conditions improve.