Bitcoin Treasury Companies Experience 50% to 80% Stock Value Decline

Bitcoin has shown resilience compared to companies adopting it for treasury strategies, with a widening gap in performance. Over the past 10 weeks, stocks of Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCTCs) have declined significantly, losing between 50% and 80% of their value, indicating a "1:4 ratio" in cycle behavior.

Mini-Bear Markets Overview

  • Bitcoin's price action has primarily followed a bullish trend over the last 18 months, achieving new highs.
  • Many companies are incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets as BTCTCs.
  • Data shows that BTCTC stock prices diverged from Bitcoin, experiencing substantial drops of 50% to 80%.
  • MetaPlanet is highlighted as a case study; its stock has undergone 12 drawdowns averaging a loss of 32.4% over approximately 20 days.
  • Notable drawdowns include a one-day drop of 22.2% and a lengthy decline of 78.6% lasting 119 days.

Correlation with Bitcoin

  • Only 41.7% of MetaPlanet’s drawdowns aligned with Bitcoin corrections; most were influenced by company-specific factors.
  • The two largest declines coincided with Bitcoin volatility, suggesting some correlation during downturns.
  • BTCTCs experience more frequent cycles compared to Bitcoin's four-year cycles, reflecting a faster market response.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a correction phase, struggling to maintain support above $110,000. Popular BTCTC stocks are similarly declining:

  • Strategy’s stock is down 37.1% from its 52-week high.
  • MetaPlanet has lost 58.6%.
  • The Smarter Web Company PLC and The Blockchain Group face losses of 83.6% and 70.7%, respectively.