Bitcoin Expected to Experience ±2% Volatility After Powell’s Speech
As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole approaches, bitcoin (BTC) is expected to experience slightly above average volatility. Key points include:
- BTC options are predicting a ±2.0% price movement around Powell’s speech.
- This represents higher volatility than the average daily volatility of 1.52%, based on a 30-day realized volatility of 29%.
- Volmex's one-day implied volatility index (BVIV1D) has risen to an annualized 49%, indicating a potential 24-hour price swing of 2.5%.
- Downside volatility is more probable if Powell's tone is balanced rather than dovish.
- Traders are purchasing put options in anticipation of a retracement, with a current skew favoring puts over calls.
Powell's speech is scheduled for Friday morning at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.