Nov 19, 2025
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Bitcoin Volatility Drops to 50% Says Michael Saylor
Bitcoin Volatility Trends
- Michael Saylor argues that increased involvement from big finance hasn't increased Bitcoin's volatility. Instead, its annualized volatility has decreased from ~80% in 2020 to about 50% today.
- Independent research supports this claim, showing a multi-year downtrend in Bitcoin's realized volatility, comparable to some S&P 500 constituents.
- Despite recent price drops and thinner liquidity amplifying short-term swings, the longer-term trend shows decreasing volatility.
MicroStrategy's Position
- MicroStrategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin, now holding approximately 649,870 BTC.
- The company's stock often reflects Bitcoin's moves, recently closing 5.8% up despite Bitcoin’s sell-off.
- MicroStrategy's mNAV multiple shows a compressed premium/discount alongside market trends.
Future Volatility Outlook
- Saylor suggests that factors like macro adoption, deeper derivatives markets, and a broader base of long-only holders could continue reducing Bitcoin’s volatility.
- While Bitcoin isn't "low risk," Saylor highlights a downward trend in volatility as the asset matures.