Bitcoin Experiences Volatility Amid US Presidential Election with Price Fluctuations
Following the US presidential election, Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting typical volatility, trading between $68,000 and $70,000, with resistance at $70,000 since Saturday.
Bitcoin Price Could Soar To Over $263,000
Market analysis firm Crypto Birb indicates that Bitcoin could surpass $73,700 post-election based on current indicators. The 200-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) are at $59,200 and $40,700, respectively, suggesting a bullish long-term outlook.
Over $470 billion in volume from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in BTC enhance market liquidity, crucial for upward price movement.
A Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of 51% indicates many Bitcoin holders are profitable, which may lead to increased selling pressure if prices rise too quickly. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV-Z Ratio) at 1.86 suggests a potential price target exceeding $263,000.
Bitcoin's low correlation of 0.16 with the S&P 500 implies its price movements are largely independent of traditional equity markets, attracting investors seeking diversification.
Historical Trends Suggest Strong November Ahead
Despite a bullish long-term outlook, short-term volatility is a concern. Key resistance levels are at $70,700 and $72,000; a breakout above $70,000 could trigger further upward momentum toward all-time highs. Current sentiment reflects a "Fear and Greed" index reading of 70, indicating greed among investors, which can lead to increased buying but also potential pullbacks if prices rise rapidly.
Mining costs are approximately $80,700, indicating miners operate at a loss below this level. Historical data shows November has averaged gains of 14.96% for BTC over the past nine years, potentially reaching $79,000 by month-end. Additionally, the fourth quarter has an average gain of 50.86%, with a maximum quarterly gain of 470.44%, suggesting a significant rally could occur regardless of election outcomes.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $69,830, reflecting a 3% increase within 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com